ICER and Conservation at ADBC Summit VII: Difference between revisions

::Standard species distribution models (SDM) use climate layers to determine a species "climate" niche and then project the species distribution to future time points as climate warms or dries, but such models do not take into account evolved physiological or ecological differences among species that might impact resistance to warm spells and / or long-term droughts. Here I will describe the relationships between climate layers and operative thermal and hydric environments for reptiles and amphibians. I use museum occurrence records linked to published ecological data to derive a general class of models that can be used in SDM which allow for evolved changes in phenology and physiology to be incorporated in the modeling. In addition, I will describe how other ecological interactions such as competition for thermal niches can be used to model the impact of climate driven extinctions of cool-adapted taxa (e.g., montane taxa) arising from the invasion of a warm-adapted competitor (e.g., lowland taxa) that might expand its range under climate warming. I apply the models to nearly all species of reptiles and diverse amphibians of North America.